USD / FX Futures

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USD / FX Futures

Weekly analysis of DXY, major currency pairs, and CFTC speculative positioning data.

US Dollar Index Outlook: Can Treasury Inflows Offset BoJ Intervention Risk

Our previous DXY outlook accurately identified the recent resistance zone and key support dynamics. In this follow-up report, we examine how Treasury inflows, AI-related market volatility, resilient US economic data, and the growing risk of Bank of Japan intervention are reshaping the outlook for the US Dollar Index, with updated forecasts for the near, medium, and longer term.

US Dollar Index Outlook: Can Treasury Inflows Offset BoJ Intervention Risk

DXY has rallied 3.64% off its 97.592 support since May, backed by fresh long positioning rather than short covering. We break down the near-term, medium-term and long-term drivers - from the Fed’s hawkish dot plot to the risk of BoJ intervention on the yen.